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Απενεργοποίηση για: Αγγλικά WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years after that, their business model all but disappeared, and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you ever think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time before it improved, became way superior to traditional formats, was finally cheaper to produce and got mainstream — in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health care, automatic/electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and many other jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution and welcome to the Exponential Age. Software alone will dramatically disrupt most traditional industries as we know them today in just the next 5-10 years.
Mind you, Uber is no more than just a software (app) tool. They don't own any cars, but are now the biggest taxi company in the world. AirBnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties — just software.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers have become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young doctors and lawyers already have fewer jobs. You can get legal and medical advice (more or less basic stuff) from IBM Watson within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when out is provided by humans.
Watson already helps doctors and nurses diagnose cancer, and being 4 times more accurate and faster than human doctors and nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become far more intelligent than humans, and with unlimited memory.
Automatic cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete automobile industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and be productive while driving.
Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autopilot driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will try the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
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